Fear the Boom and Bust

Fear the Boom and Bust

歌名 Fear the Boom and Bust
歌手 EconStories
专辑 Keynes vs. Hayek
原歌词
[00:00.00] 作曲 : John Papola
[00:02.00] John Maynard kaynes
[00:03.75] F.A.Hayek
[00:06.00] Keynes: Yeah, we're opposed
[00:08.00] Hayek: We oppose each other philosophically
[00:10.00] Keynes: In the same studio
[00:11.00] We've been going back and forth for a century
[00:13.80] Keynes: I want to steer markets
[00:15.30] Hayek: I want them set free
[00:17.00] There's a boom and bust cycle, and good reason to fear it
[00:19.50] Hayek: Blame low interest rates
[00:20.00] Keynes: No... it's the animal spirits
[00:22.00] Keynes:
[00:22.05] John Maynard Keynes wrote the book on modern macro
[00:25.00] The man you need when the economy's off track
[00:28.00] Depression, recession, Now your question's in session
[00:30.80] Have a seat and I'll school you in one simple lesson
[00:33.00]
[00:34.00] Boom! 1929: the big crash!
[00:36.30] We didn't bounce back, economy's in the trash~
[00:39.00] Persistent unemployment, the result of sticky wages,
[00:42.00] Waiting for recovery? (Seriously?) That's outrageous
[00:45.00] I had a real plan any fool can understand,
[00:47.30] The advice real simple: boost aggregate demand!
[00:50.00] C,I,G, altogether gets to Y(GDP=C+G+I+NX*),
[00:53.00] Keep that total growing, watch the economy fly
[00:55.00]
[00:55.50] We've been going back and forth for a century
[00:58.30] Keynes: I want to steer markets
[00:59.80] Hayek: I want them set free
[01:01.00] There's a boom and bust cycle, and good reason to fear it
[01:04.00] Hayek: Blame low interest rates
[01:04.50] Keynes: No... it's the animal spirits
[01:06.20] Keynes:
[01:06.70] You see it's all about spending, hear the register cha-ching
[01:09.70] Circular flow, the dough is everything
[01:12.20] So if that flow is getting low, It doesn't matter the reason
[01:15.00] We need more government spending, Now it's stimulus season
[01:18.00] So forget about saving, Get it straight out of your head
[01:21.00] Like I said, "In the long run, we're all dead"
[01:24.00] Savings is destruction, that's the paradox of thrift,
[01:26.00] Don't keep money in your pocket or that growth will never lift, because:
[01:29.50] Business is driven by the animal spirits,
[01:32.00] The bull and the bear and there's reasons to fear
[01:34.70] It's effects on capital investment, income, and growth
[01:37.70] That's why the state should fill the gap, with stimulus both
[01:40.00] The monetary and the fiscal, they're equally correct
[01:43.00] Public works, digging ditches, war has the same effect
[01:46.00] Even a broken window helps the glass man have some wealth
[01:48.00] The multiplier driving higher the economy’s health
[01:51.00] And if the Central Bank’s interest rate policy tanks
[01:54.00] A liquidity trap, that new money’s stuck in the banks!
[01:57.00] Deficits could be the cure, you been looking for
[02:00.00] Let the spending soar, now that you know the score
[02:03.00] My General Theory’s made quite an impression
[02:05.50] (a revolution)I transformed the econ profession
[02:08.00] You know me, modesty, still I’m taking a bow
[02:11.00] Say it loud, say it proud, we’re all Keynesians now!
[02:13.00]
[02:14.00] We’ve been goin’ back and forth for a century
[02:16.50] Keynes: I want to steer markets
[02:18.00] Hayek: I want them set free
[02:19.50] There's a boom and bust cycle, and good reason to fear it
[02:22.00] Keynes: I made my case, Freddie H, listen up can you hear it?
[02:25.50] Hayek:
[02:26.00] I’ll begin in broad strokes, just like my friend Keynes
[02:28.00] His theory conceals the mechanics of change
[02:30.50] That simple equation, too much aggregation
[02:34.00] Ignores human action and motivation
[02:37.00] And yet it continues as a justification
[02:39.00] For bailouts and payoffs by pols with machinations
[02:42.00] You provide them with cover to sell us a free lunch
[02:45.00] Then all that we’re left with is debt, and a bunch
[02:47.50] If you’re living high on that cheap credit hog
[02:50.00] Don’t look for cure from the hair of the dog
[02:53.00] Real savings come first if you want to invest
[02:55.50] The market coordinates time with interest
[02:58.00] Your focus on spending is pushing on thread
[03:01.00] In the long run, my friend, it’s your theory that’s dead
[03:04.00] So sorry there, buddy, if that sounds like invective
[03:07.00] Prepare to get schooled in my Austrian perspective
[03:09.00]
[03:09.50] We’ve been going back and forth for a century
[03:12.00] Keynes: I want to steer markets
[03:13.70] Hayek: I want them set free
[03:15.00] There's a boom and bust cycle, and good reason to fear it
[03:18.00] Hayek: Blame low interest rates
[03:18.50] Keynes: No... it's the animal spirits
[03:20.00]
[03:21.00] The place you should study isn’t the bust
[03:23.70] It’s the boom that should make you feel leery,
[03:25.70] that’s the thrust of my theory, the capital structure is key
[03:29.00] Malinvestments wreck the economy
[03:32.00] The boom gets started with an expansion of credit
[03:35.00] The Fed sets rates low, are you starting to get it?
[03:37.50] That new money is confused for real loanable funds
[03:41.00] But it’s just inflation that’s driving the ones
[03:43.00] Who invest in new projects like housing construction
[03:46.00] The boom plants the seeds for its future destruction
[03:49.00] The savings aren’t real, consumption’s up too
[03:52.00] And the grasping for resources reveals there’s too few
[03:55.00] So the boom turns to bust as the interest rates rise
[03:57.00] With the costs of production, price signals were lies
[04:00.00] The boom was a binge that’s a matter of fact
[04:02.50] Now its devalued capital that makes up the slack
[04:05.50] Whether it’s the late twenties or 2005
[04:08.00] Booming bad investments, seems like they’d thrive
[04:11.50] You must save to invest, don’t use the printing press
[04:14.00] Or a bust will surely follow, an economy depressed
[04:16.70] Your so-called “stimulus” will make things even worse
[04:19.70] It’s just more of the same, more incentives perversed
[04:22.70] And that credit crunch ain’t a liquidity trap
[04:24.90] Just a broke banking system, I’m done, that’s a wrap!
[04:27.00]
[04:28.00] We’ve been goin’ back and forth for a century
[04:30.50] Keynes: I want to steer markets
[04:32.50] Hayek: I want them set free
[04:33.00] There's a boom and bust cycle, and good reason to fear it
[04:36.00] Hayek: Blame low interest rates
[04:37.00] Keynes: No... it's the animal spirits
[04:39.00]
[04:40.00] "The ideas of economists and political philosophers...
[04:44.00] both when they are right and when they are wrong...
[04:46.00] are more powerful than is commonly understood."
[04:49.00] "Indeed the world is ruled by little else."
[04:52.00] "Practically men who believe themselves to be...
[04:54.00] quite exempt from any intellectual influence...
[04:57.00] are usually the slaves of some defunct economist."
[05:00.00] (by John Maynard kaynes)
[05:01.00]
[05:02.00] "The curious task of economics...
[05:04.00] is to demonstrate to men how little they really know...
[05:08.00] about what they imagine they can design."
[05:12.00] (by F.A.Hayek)
[05:12.10] (We've been going back and forth for a century)
[05:16.00]
[05:18.00] A song by "EconStories", lyrics by "InnovationCentury".
歌词翻译
[00:02.00] 约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯
[00:03.75] F.A.哈耶克
[00:06.00] 凯恩斯:对,我们是对手
[00:08.00] 哈耶克:我们哲学上互相反对
[00:10.00] 凯恩斯:在一个演播室
[00:11.00] 我们已经反反复复一个世纪
[00:13.80] 凯恩斯:我想要掌控市场
[00:15.30] 哈耶克:我想要他们放手
[00:17.00] 繁荣与崩溃的周期,理应忧虑
[00:19.50] 哈耶克:责怪低利率吧
[00:20.00] 凯恩斯:不,怪动物精神
[00:22.00] 凯恩斯:
[00:22.05] 约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯在现代宏观经济基础上写了这本书
[00:25.00] 当经济偏离轨道时你需要这个人
[00:28.00] 萧条,衰退,现在你的问题被提上讲习会
[00:30.80] 坐,我现在会给你上简单的一课
[00:33.00]
[00:34.00] 砰!1929:大崩盘!
[00:36.30] 我们没反弹,经济已经是一团垃圾~
[00:39.00] 持续的失业,工资粘性的结果
[00:42.00] 在等恢复?(认真的吗?)不可能的
[00:45.00] 我有一个认真的计划,傻子都能懂
[00:47.30] 建议很简单:促进总需求!
[00:50.00] 消费,投资,政府购买,加在一起得到Y(GDP=消费+政府购买+投资+进出口)
[00:53.00] 坚持增加总需求,看着经济起飞
[00:55.00]
[00:55.50] 我们已经反反复复一个世纪
[00:58.30] 凯恩斯:我想要掌控市场
[00:59.80] 哈耶克:我想要他们放手
[01:01.00] 繁荣与崩溃的周期,理应忧虑,
[01:04.00] 哈耶克:责怪低利率吧
[01:04.50] 凯恩斯:不,怪动物精神
[01:06.20] 凯恩斯:
[01:06.70] 你看花钱才是重点,听收银机刷刷的声音
[01:09.70] 循环的流动,金钱才是一切
[01:12.20] 所以如果现金流变低,原因不重要
[01:15.00] 我们需要更多的政府消费,现在是刺激市场的时刻
[01:18.00] 所以忘了储蓄吧,把这个想法扔出脑子
[01:21.00] 就像我说的,“长期来看,我们都是死的”
[01:24.00] 储蓄是毁灭,那是节俭的悖论
[01:26.00] 别把钱藏在你的口袋,否则经济增长永远不会提升,因为:
[01:29.50] 商业被动物精神驱动,
[01:32.00] 牛市与熊市,理应忧虑
[01:34.70] 是投资、收入和增长的效应
[01:37.70] 那就是为什么国家应该填满缺口,通过刺激双边
[01:40.00] 货币的与财政的,它们一样正确
[01:43.00] 公共事业,挖水渠,战争有一样的效果
[01:46.00] 即使一个打破的窗户都帮助修理工得到一些财产
[01:48.00] 乘数效应促进经济的健康
[01:51.00] 而且如果央行的利率政策失败
[01:54.00] 一个流动性陷阱,所有的新钱都被困在银行!
[01:57.00] 赤字可以是解药,你一直寻找的
[02:00.00] 让花钱猛增,你就知道会怎样
[02:03.00] 我的总体理论已经给人留下深刻印象
[02:05.50] (一场变革)转变了经济行业
[02:08.00] 你知道我,非常谦虚,我还鞠躬答谢
[02:11.00] 大声说,骄傲地说,我们都是凯恩斯主义者!
[02:13.00]
[02:14.00] 我们已经反反复复一个世纪
[02:16.50] 凯恩斯:我想要掌控市场
[02:18.00] 哈耶克:我想要他们放手
[02:19.50] 繁荣与崩溃的周期,理应忧虑,
[02:22.00] 凯恩斯:我陈述完了我的观点,弗雷迪 H,认真听你听见了吗?
[02:25.50] 哈耶克:
[02:26.00] 我从大致思路说起,就像我的朋友凯恩斯
[02:28.00] 他的理论隐藏了改变的机制
[02:30.50] 那个简单的等式,太多的加总
[02:34.00] 忽视了人的活动和动机
[02:37.00] 然而这一直都是一个理由
[02:39.00] 对于紧急援助和诡计多端的政客的报酬
[02:42.00] 你付钱给他们来卖我们一顿免费午餐
[02:45.00] 然后我们所有人被留在债务里,一堆债务
[02:47.50] 如果你在挥霍使用廉价信用卡
[02:50.00] 别妄图从咬你的狗的毛找解药
[02:53.00] 真实的储蓄第一,如果你想要投资
[02:55.50] 市场会把时间与利率协调起来
[02:58.00] 你聚焦花费是在把线拉紧
[03:01.00] 长期来看,我的朋友,你的理论才是死的那个
[03:04.00] 所以不好意思,兄弟,如果听起来有点过火
[03:07.00] 准备从我的奥地利观点里受教吧
[03:09.00]
[03:09.50] 我们已经反反复复一个世纪
[03:12.00] 凯恩斯:我想要掌控市场
[03:13.70] 哈耶克:我想要他们放手
[03:15.00] 繁荣与崩溃的周期,理应忧虑,
[03:18.00] 哈耶克:责怪低利率吧
[03:18.50] 凯恩斯:不,怪动物精神
[03:20.00]
[03:21.00] 你应该学习的领域不是崩溃
[03:23.70] 繁荣才应该让你留神
[03:25.70] 那是我的理论的刀锋,资本结构才是重点
[03:29.00] 不正当的投资破坏经济
[03:32.00] 通过信贷的扩张繁荣开始
[03:35.00] 联邦制定低利率,你开始明白了吗?
[03:37.50] 暴发户被真的可借资金迷惑
[03:41.00] 但是只不过是通货膨胀在刺激那些
[03:43.00] 谁投资像房屋建筑一样的新工程
[03:46.00] 繁荣种下了未来毁灭的种子
[03:49.00] 储蓄不是真的,消费也上涨了
[03:52.00] 之后对资源的抢夺揭露了资源的稀缺
[03:55.00] 所以随着利率升高,繁荣转变为崩溃
[03:57.00] 随着生产成本,价格信号都是谎言
[04:00.00] 实际上繁荣只不过是一场狂欢
[04:02.50] 现在它贬值的资产组成了经济松弛
[04:05.50] 无论在二十世纪后期还是2005
[04:08.00] 发展坏的投资,看起来他们会繁荣
[04:11.50] 你必须先储蓄再投资,别用印钱机
[04:14.00] 否则崩溃必然跟随,一场经济衰退到来
[04:16.70] 你所谓的“刺激”会让事情更糟
[04:19.70] 只是更多一样的,错误的激励
[04:22.70] 并且信贷紧缩可不是流动性陷阱
[04:24.90] 那只是一个崩溃的银行系统,我受够了,那是伪装!
[04:27.00]
[04:28.00] 我们已经反反复复一个世纪
[04:30.50] 凯恩斯:我想要掌控市场
[04:32.50] 哈耶克:我想要他们放手
[04:33.00] 繁荣与崩溃的周期,理应忧虑,
[04:36.00] 哈耶克:责怪低利率吧
[04:37.00] 凯恩斯:不,怪动物精神
[04:39.00]
[04:40.00] “经济学家和政治哲学家的思想……
[04:44.00] 当他们对或错的时候都是……
[04:46.00] 比通常理解的更有力量。“
[04:49.00] ”确实世界是被小部分其他人控制的。“
[04:52.00] ”实际上一个相信自己会成为……
[04:54.00] 任何知识影响的豁免者的人……
[04:57.00] 通常是某些已经过时的经济学家的奴隶。“
[05:00.00] (———约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯)
[05:01.00]
[05:02.00] ”经济学的求知的工作……
[05:04.00] 是去证明一个人知道得多么少……
[05:08.00] 关于他们想象自己可以设计的东西。“
[05:12.00] (———F.A.哈耶克)
[05:12.10] (我们已经反反复复一个世纪)
[05:16.00]
[05:18.00] 作曲:EconStories 作词:nnovationCentury